Hey Luke, nice read - I’m restarting at a boutique strategy consulting firm after a couple years in government for this reason. It should give a great overview and insight into trends across industries.
Curious how you see someone can very tangibly Observe > Create Side Hustle > Prove Market > then go for it.
I will say the world is always changing and moonshots are always possible. Jobs and new companies will exist and if it’s not for a wave of AI, it will be something else. I don’t see how this moment is a particularly “entrepreneurial” one outside of allowing nontechnical builders to low-code quicker. You still need the same special sauce of positioning your own moonshot correctly in a market like any other era, e.g. Facebook and the wave of social media companies.
On your first question: That path still follows a traditional entrepreneurship model of observing a problem (maybe at your existing job, maybe somewhere else), building a quick tool to solve it, testing it, getting users, and scaling. Today's AI has already shrunk the skills and time required to do this. I expect the next two years to make this far, far easier. I'd read this by Paul Graham. He discusses ways to get started, and he knows better than I do: https://paulgraham.com/mit.html#:~:text=One%20way%20to,hurt%20to%20try.
But that's not the only reason I'm recommending this. I disagree that the world is always changing in the way that it is poised to change over the next decade. I'm of the belief that advanced AI will fundamentally reshape the job market, ending most white collar work as we know it -- and eventually leaving most of today's jobs entirely automated. I'm skeptical of the "new jobs" arguments this time around, and think that people and policymakers should be prepared for the world where humans are actually worse at most tasks. My other posts on this blog covers this extensively.
I think we are on a rapid march to human-level AI systems, and greater than human-level shortly thereafter. This is where I expect entrepreneurial opportunities to massively expand, provided the cost of these models is cheap enough for widespread consumer and small business adoption. A lot of those bets can be made now, and more will be possible in the next few years.
This is a double-edged sword: the old jobs will die, and the new, fewer ones will struggle to come into being. It's not clear to me what happens in this new world to regular people. What is clear to me is that the opportunity for innovation will massively expand as most busywork gets automated away. Many more small companies will exist, but an enormous amount of people will still struggle to find high-paying work, if it's available at all.
This is largely a policy problem, but it has implications for today's new grads. It means that most of the safe career bets of the past look like the wrong one. I'd always advise new grads from elite universities to do the riskier thing, because you can afford to fail when you're young. What's changed is that the prestige paths are going out the window -- they are not paths to stable, safe employment in the future. I think, for the best and brightest, you can't afford *not* to try.
Great piece, young people are certainly at a crossroads in the future of their careers and work. Young people need to take self-employment more seriously if they want to have a sustainable path.
CS student here. I've had a similar realization myself that I need to become agentic and "do things" rather than simply slaying level 1 rats in the sewers until I become a L6 senior vice lead whatever. The issue is that I don't know what to do. I think I've had like...two ideas so far. One of which is only a novelty and the other whose viability is questionable. I think my childhood environment "RHLF'd" anything resembling creativity and agenticness out of me and I don't know how to undo that. Would like some advice here.
Everything about this is spot on. We are at a unique stage in history. Most people still talk about career planning like nothing is changing - that goal of having a certain job title which leads to another job title that might have the word "senior" in it or "vice" in it in a large organization. In the new world we are entering, will job titles even have the same significance they traditionally have had? I doubt it. Will the definition of a career change? The future will be about what you do and not a job title label someone else gives you, so do something you think is important.
Hi Luke, excellent content, read many articles here.
If AI will take over most of the cognitive work, what might be the point for humans to study in the traditional sense? Should newer generations consider going back to traditional work such as farming and handyman?
Good “tough love” piece from you, Luke. I hope your peers take up your challenge. Your thesis about this being the age of moonshots is one I agree with wholeheartedly; I wrote recently how AI has ushered in a new Age of Agency where Agency > Intelligence now that the cost of accessing top tier expertise only costs a few seconds and a few cents.
Hey Luke, nice read - I’m restarting at a boutique strategy consulting firm after a couple years in government for this reason. It should give a great overview and insight into trends across industries.
Curious how you see someone can very tangibly Observe > Create Side Hustle > Prove Market > then go for it.
I will say the world is always changing and moonshots are always possible. Jobs and new companies will exist and if it’s not for a wave of AI, it will be something else. I don’t see how this moment is a particularly “entrepreneurial” one outside of allowing nontechnical builders to low-code quicker. You still need the same special sauce of positioning your own moonshot correctly in a market like any other era, e.g. Facebook and the wave of social media companies.
Hey Max! First, congrats on the new job.
On your first question: That path still follows a traditional entrepreneurship model of observing a problem (maybe at your existing job, maybe somewhere else), building a quick tool to solve it, testing it, getting users, and scaling. Today's AI has already shrunk the skills and time required to do this. I expect the next two years to make this far, far easier. I'd read this by Paul Graham. He discusses ways to get started, and he knows better than I do: https://paulgraham.com/mit.html#:~:text=One%20way%20to,hurt%20to%20try.
But that's not the only reason I'm recommending this. I disagree that the world is always changing in the way that it is poised to change over the next decade. I'm of the belief that advanced AI will fundamentally reshape the job market, ending most white collar work as we know it -- and eventually leaving most of today's jobs entirely automated. I'm skeptical of the "new jobs" arguments this time around, and think that people and policymakers should be prepared for the world where humans are actually worse at most tasks. My other posts on this blog covers this extensively.
I think we are on a rapid march to human-level AI systems, and greater than human-level shortly thereafter. This is where I expect entrepreneurial opportunities to massively expand, provided the cost of these models is cheap enough for widespread consumer and small business adoption. A lot of those bets can be made now, and more will be possible in the next few years.
This is a double-edged sword: the old jobs will die, and the new, fewer ones will struggle to come into being. It's not clear to me what happens in this new world to regular people. What is clear to me is that the opportunity for innovation will massively expand as most busywork gets automated away. Many more small companies will exist, but an enormous amount of people will still struggle to find high-paying work, if it's available at all.
This is largely a policy problem, but it has implications for today's new grads. It means that most of the safe career bets of the past look like the wrong one. I'd always advise new grads from elite universities to do the riskier thing, because you can afford to fail when you're young. What's changed is that the prestige paths are going out the window -- they are not paths to stable, safe employment in the future. I think, for the best and brightest, you can't afford *not* to try.
Great piece, young people are certainly at a crossroads in the future of their careers and work. Young people need to take self-employment more seriously if they want to have a sustainable path.
CS student here. I've had a similar realization myself that I need to become agentic and "do things" rather than simply slaying level 1 rats in the sewers until I become a L6 senior vice lead whatever. The issue is that I don't know what to do. I think I've had like...two ideas so far. One of which is only a novelty and the other whose viability is questionable. I think my childhood environment "RHLF'd" anything resembling creativity and agenticness out of me and I don't know how to undo that. Would like some advice here.
Shoot me a DM. Let’s book a call.
Everything about this is spot on. We are at a unique stage in history. Most people still talk about career planning like nothing is changing - that goal of having a certain job title which leads to another job title that might have the word "senior" in it or "vice" in it in a large organization. In the new world we are entering, will job titles even have the same significance they traditionally have had? I doubt it. Will the definition of a career change? The future will be about what you do and not a job title label someone else gives you, so do something you think is important.
Really enjoyed this Luke. You are 100% correct.
Great work
what is your moonshot?
Stay tuned
Hi Luke, excellent content, read many articles here.
If AI will take over most of the cognitive work, what might be the point for humans to study in the traditional sense? Should newer generations consider going back to traditional work such as farming and handyman?
Good “tough love” piece from you, Luke. I hope your peers take up your challenge. Your thesis about this being the age of moonshots is one I agree with wholeheartedly; I wrote recently how AI has ushered in a new Age of Agency where Agency > Intelligence now that the cost of accessing top tier expertise only costs a few seconds and a few cents.
Truely inspiring